Denver came back to force a game 7 against the Clippers, while game one of the ECF between the Celtics/Heat start tonight. Below are some players to target on this slate:
Goran Dragic – PG ($7,000): Dragic has offered a nice floor (only one game below 30 fd points) throughout the bubble. He should get 5x value , if not 6x. He is logging plenty of minutes, which should provide opportunities to fill up the state sheet. I prefer paying down here versus paying for Murray ($8,400) or Walker ($7,400).
Lou Williams – PG ($5,500): Sweet Lou has the potential to go off on any night; he can fill it up. There is some inherited risk with this play as he has scored 20 or less fd points in 3 of the 6 games of this series. He is logging 20+ mins. I don’t mind plugging him in your lineup at this price.
Gary Harris – SG ($5,700): this may be the riskiest play of the players listed here. Since coming back, he has been logging more minutes but his scoring is inconsistent. I do look for him to get around 18 fd points tonight.
Tyler Herro – SG ($5,000): Herro…what a rookie year. This bubble has been great for him. Look for him to continue what has has been doing. He has been trending in the right direction filling up the stat sheet; this provides a nice floor, even if he has an off not shooting.
Kawhi Leonard – SF ($10,600): Game 7. Expect Kawhi to show up and carry this team tonight, if needed. He has scored above 40 fd points in every game of this series, and game four where he went for 73.7 fd points. I think you could expect 45-55 fd points as a realistic number tonight.
Jae Crowder – SF ($5,100): Jae Crowder scored 29+ fd points in the last four games. I do expect him to regress slightly in this series to 20-25 fd points. That would imply 3.92x – 4.9x value for him. I don’t hate that number. Plus, if you are one for storylines, maybe he looks for a little revenge against his old squad.
Bam Adebayo – ($8,500): Bam had a down game in the final game against Mil, with only 18.2 fd points. Prior to that game, he scored 45+ fd points in 5 of the last 6. I like him to bounce back tonight with a 30+ fd point performance tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. – SF/PF ($5,200): Porter has been up and down for fd points during the playoffs. Once again there is some inherited risk with this play (just as Sweet Lou), but offers the potential to go for upwards of 40 fd points on any given night. I expect his scoring to be around 24 fd points tonight, giving his value around 4.62x.
Nikola Jokic – C ($10,200): The Joker has been on a tear. He has scored above 48 fd points in all but the first game of this series, with the last game going for 62.3 fd points. If Denver has any chance tonight, their offense will need to go through Jokic. I expect him to have a nice floor of at least 40 fd points again. Consider him a lock tonight if have the room in your budget.
Ivica Zubac – C ($4,700): This is certainly a riskiest play tonight, but provides an option if you pay up at other spots. He is averaging 22.6 fd points over his last three games. He should have a floor of 14+ fd points tonight.
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