Denver came back to force a game 7 against the Clippers, while game one of the ECF between the Celtics/Heat start tonight. Below are some players to target on this slate:
Goran Dragic – PG ($7,300): Dragic has offered a nice floor (25 dk points) throughout the bubble. He should get 5x value , if not 6x. He is logging plenty of minutes, which should provide opportunities to fill up the state sheet. I prefer paying down here versus paying for Murray ($8,700) or Walker ($7,700).
Lou Williams – PG/SG ($5,500): Sweet Lou has the potential to go off on any night; he can fill it up. There is some inherited risk with this play as he has scored 20 or less dk points in 3 of the 6 games of this series. He is logging 20+ mins. I don’t mind plugging him in your lineup at this price.
Tyler Herro – SG ($5,400): Herro…what a rookie year. This bubble has been great for him. Look for him to continue what has has been doing. He has scored less than 20 dk points only ONCE since the beginning of August. And he is filling up the stat sheet; this provides a nice floor, even if he has an off not shooting.
Gary Harris – SG ($4,600): this is by far the riskiest play of the guards I listed. Since coming back, he has been logging more minutes but his scoring is inconsistent. I do look for him to get around 20 dk points tonight.
Kawhi Leonard – SF ($10,400): Game 7. Expect Kawhi to show up and carry this team tonight, if needed. He has scored above 40 dk points in every game of this series, with three of the games over 53 dk points. I think you could expect 45-55 dk points as a realistic number tonight.
Jae Crowder – PF ($5,800): Jae Crowder scored over 31 dk points in the last four games. I do expect him to regress slightly in this series to 20-30 dk points. That would imply 3.45x – 5.17x value for him. I don’t hate that number. Plus, if you are one for storylines, maybe he looks for a little revenge against his old squad.
Michael Porter Jr. – SF/PF ($5,300): Porter has been up and down for dk points during the playoffs. Once again there is some inherited risk with this play (just as Sweet Lou), but offers the potential to go for 40 dk points on any given night. I expect his scoring to be around 25 dk points tonight, giving his value around 4.72x.
Nikola Jokic – C ($10,000): The Joker has been on a tear. He has scored above 50 dk points in all but the first game of this series, with three of those above 60 dk points. If Denver has any chance tonight, their offense will need to go through Jokic. I expect him to be 50+ dk points again. Consider him a lock tonight if you are willing to pay up.
Bam Adebayo – ($8,400): Bam had a down game in the final game against Mil, with only 21 dk points. Prior to that game, he scored 43+ dk points in 5 of the last 6. I like him to bounce back tonight with a 30+ dk point performance tonight.
Ivica Zubac – C ($4,800): This is the riskiest play for centers tonight out of those I listed, but provides an option if you pay up at other spots. He is averaging 22.2 dk points over his last three games. He should have a floor of 15+ dk points tonight.
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